Islamic State likely to pick battle-hardened Iraqi as next leader

The group of potential successors to Abu
Ibrahim al-Quraishi, who blew himself up during a US operation to capture him
in Syria last week, includes one commander whom Washington and Baghdad declared
killed last year, the Iraqi officials said.

The death of Quraishi, 45, was another
crushing blow to IS two years after the violent Sunni Muslim group lost
longtime leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a similar raid in 2019.

Quraishi, an Iraqi, never publicly addressed
his fighters or followers, avoided electronic communications and oversaw a move
to fighting in small devolved units in response to intense pressure from Iraqi
and US-led forces.

But those following Islamic State closely
expect it to name a successor in coming weeks, as the group which imposed
brutal rule over vast swathes of Iraq and Syria from 2014 to 2017 continues a
stubborn and deadly insurgency in the Middle East.

Fadhil Abu Rgheef, an Iraqi expert who advises
its security services, said there were at least four possible successors.

“These include … Abu Khadija, whose
last known role was Iraq leader for Islamic State, Abu Muslim, its leader for
Anbar province, and another called Abu Salih, of whom there’s very little
information but who was close to Baghdadi and Quraishi,” he said.

“There’s also Abu Yassir al-Issawi, who
is suspected to be still alive. He’s valuable to the group as he has long
military experience.”

Issawi’s death in an air strike in January
2021 was reported at the time by both Iraqi forces as well as the US-led
military coalition fighting Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

But an Iraqi security official confirmed there
were strong suspicions Issawi is still alive. “If he’s not dead he’d be a
candidate, he’s tried and tested in planning military attacks and has thousands
of supporters,” the official said.

SECURITY SWEEP

The official added that Islamic State was
likely carrying out a security sweep for potential leaks that led to the death
of Quraishi before convening to choose or announce a successor.

Hassan Hassan, editor of New Lines magazine
which has published research on Quraishi, said the new leader would be a
veteran Iraqi jihadist.

“If they choose one in the coming weeks
they’ll have to choose someone from among the same circle … the group that
was part of the Anbari group which operated under (the name) ISIS since the
early days,” he said.

Islamic State emerged from the militants that
waged an increasingly Sunni Islamist, sectarian-driven insurgency against US
troops and Iraqi forces after 2003.

The Islamic State of Iraq, also known as al
Qaeda in Iraq, was an offshoot of the global al Qaeda organisation of Osama Bin
Laden and the precursor to ISIS, which took shape in the chaos of Syria’s civil
war across the border.

Baghdadi and Quraishi, both members of al
Qaeda in Iraq from the start, did time in US detention in the mid-2000s. In
contrast, none of the four potential successors to Quraishi had been captured
by US forces, one security official and one army colonel told Reuters.

Officials and analysts in various countries
agree Islamic State is under more pressure than it’s ever been and will never
restore its self-styled caliphate. But they are divided on how significant a
setback Quraishi’s death is for the group.

Some say the fight against ISIS will suck in
the United States and its allies for years to come as it develops into a
permanent insurgency with new leaders ready to take the reins.

“In Syria, Islamic State units work as a
devolved network of individual groups in order to avoid them being targeted. We
don’t therefore believe that Quraishi’s death will have an enormous
impact,” one of the Iraqi security officials said.

“It’s also become more difficult to
follow them because they’ve long stopped using mobile phones for
communication.”

Since their territorial defeat in Iraq in 2017
and Syria in 2019, Islamic State leaders have found it increasingly easy to
move between the two countries, helped by a gap in areas of control between
different armed forces, some officials say.

Security and military officials said the 600
km (372 mile)long border with Syria made it a very hard for Iraqi forces to
prevent militants infiltrating via underground tunnels.

NEW LEADERSHIP STYLE

Lahur Talabany, former counter-terrorism chief
for Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, said some IS leaders can travel on a
route across the full expanse of Iraq.

“When you see attacks increasing in a
particular area I wouldn’t be surprised if somebody important has been through
that region,” he told Reuters. “The caliphate was defeated but ISIS
was never eradicated. I don’t believe we managed to finish the job.”

Islamic State’s possession of land in Iraq and
Syria set it apart from other like-minded groups such as al Qaeda and became
central to its mission when it declared a caliphate in 2014, claiming
sovereignty over all Muslim lands and peoples.

Fiercely anti-Western, the group also draws on
Sunni-Shi’ite tensions, saying Shi’ites were infidels who deserve to be killed.

Abu Rgheef said the new leader could have
stronger military credentials than Quraishi, who Iraqi officials say was seen
by followers as more of an Islamic legal mind than a military man.

“Attacks and operations will change in
character depending on the style of the new leader. The new one might believe
in big and intensive attacks, bombs or suicide bombers,” he said.

Despite Quraishi’s low profile and operational
secrecy, his killing is likely to affect the group’s fighters, analysts say.

Hassan said Quraishi’s removal would reduce
morale. “ISIS is also locked into personalities and who’s most
trusted,” he said.

Aaron Zelin, senior fellow at the Washington
Institute, said a figurehead is very important to ISIS.

“Whenever a leader of the group is
killed, your oath is to the (next) leader, the individual themselves, and not
to the group.”