Cyclone Yaas in the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a severe cyclone late on Monday night and lay about 320 km South-South-East of Paradip; 430 km South-South-East of Balasore (both Odisha); 420 km South-South-East of Digha (West Bengal) and 470 km South-South-West of Khepupara (Bangladesh) this (Tuesday) morning.
Gale winds speed reaching 100-110 km/hr gusting to 120 km/hr prevailed over major parts of the Central Bay and would increase gradually becoming 125-135 km/hr gusting to 140 km/hr from this evening, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.
Cyclone ‘Yaas’ over the East-Central Bay of Bengal has intensified into a severe cyclone and is expected to intensify further as ‘a very severe cyclone by Tuesday evening.
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Very severe cyclone by evening
Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 km/hr gusting 70 km/hr were prevailing over the North Bay and along and off North Andhra Pradesh-Odisha–West Bengal–Bangladesh coasts this morning.
‘Yaas’ is expected to strengthen into a very severe cyclone later today and may intensify further before reaching the North-West Bay near North Odisha and West Bengal coasts very close to Chandbali-Dhamra Port by tomorrow (Wednesday) morning, the IMD said.
The powerful cyclone may cross the North Odisha-West Bengal coasts between Paradip and Sagar Island around Balasore during Wednesday noon as a very severe cyclone.
Implications for Kerala onset
After helping precipitate the onset of the South-West monsoon over the Bay, what the very severe cyclone could likely do with the dynamics of the onset over the mainland along the Kerala coast remains to be seen. The IMD has said that the onset is likely to happen on May 31 with a model error of +/-4 days.
Akhilesh Gupta, formerly a leading operational forecaster and currently a top official with the Department of Science and Technology agreed saying that the onset could likely happen around May 31, but the very severe cyclone may interfere with the onward progress of the monsoon at least initially.
Onward progress of monsoon
“It is only to be expected that Kerala and Coastal Karnataka may get rainfall associated with the onset for the first three or four days. But it may not last much longer with winds turning north-westerly for a while and may have to wait for the next pulse to arrive,” Gupta said in an informal online interaction with weather bloggers and enthusiasts from Tamil Nadu.
Meanwhile, the IMD has said that ‘Yaas’ may bring North Coastal Andhra Pradesh under its influence with moderate rainfall and heavy to very heavy falls today. A similar outlook is valid for adjacent Odisha across the Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Khurda, Cuttack, Kendrapara, Jajpur, Bhadrak and Balasore districts.
Rain for coastal Andhra Pradesh
It would be heavy over Ganjam, Dhenkanal and Mayurbhanj today; heavy to very heavy rains with extremely heavy falls over Jagatsinghpur, Cuttack, Kendrapara, Jajpur, Bhadrak, Balasore, Mayurbhanj, Dhenkanal and Keonjhargarh; and heavy over Puri, Khurda, Angul, Deogarh, Sundergarh on Wednesday.
Heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy falls are forecast for North Interior Odisha on Thursday.
As for West Bengal and Sikkim, moderate rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Medinipur and South 24 Parganas; and heavy over Howrah, Hooghly and North 24 Parganas today.
Outlook for West Bengal, Sikkim
Extremely heavy rainfall may lash Medinipur and heavy to very heavy over Jhargram, Purulia, Bankura, Bardhaman, Howrah, Hooghly, Kolkata, 24 Parganas, Bhirbhum; and heavy over Nadia, Murshidabad and Darjeeling on Wednesday.
On Thursday, heavy rain is likely over Malda, Darjeeling, Dinajpur, Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri, Sikkim and heavy over Bankura, Purulia, Bardhaman, Bhirbhum and Murshidabad.
Rains for Jharkhand, Bihar
In Jharkhand, moderate rainfall is likely at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy falls at isolated places on Wednesday and Thursday while likely isolated heavy to very heavy falls on Friday.
Even Bihar will be affected with moderate rainfall likely at most places and heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy falls at isolated places on Thursday and isolated heavy to very heavy falls on Friday.
