The Election Commissioner of India Sushil Chandra on January 8, 2022, announced the assembly poll schedule for five poll bound states—Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa. Elections will be held for 403 assembly seats in UP, 117 in Punjab, 70 in Uttarakhand, 60 in Manipur and 40 in Goa.
Uttar Pradesh will have seven-phase voting during February 10, 14, 20, 23, 27, March 3 and 7. Uttarakhand, and Goa will vote in a single phase on 14 February and Punjab will vote in a single phase on 20 February. Manipur in two phases on 27 February and 3 March. Counting of votes will be on March 10. The Model Code of Conduct for political parties and candidates – speeches, polling day, booths, portfolios, manifestos, processions and general conduct—got into effect immediately. The digital campaigns will have nominations filing online.
For COVID safe elections, the EC announced an absolute moratorium on public rallies, physical roadshows, padyatras, processions, bicycle rallies, Nukkar sabhas, victory rallies and corner meetings till 15 January, further extended till 22 January.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the ruling party in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa; Punjab has Congress government. Pre-poll survey showed BJP sliding this time but still could garner majority. Samajwadi Party (SP) is gaining steam, strengthened further by recent desertion of leaders from BJP indicating realignment of caste forces. Total 18.55 crore eligible voters, including 8.55 crore women and 24.9 lakh first-time electors make the exercise mammoth.
ECI desires one polling station managed exclusively by women in every Assembly constituency and has 1620 such booths in 690 assembly segments! Senior citizens above 80 years, persons with disabilities and Covid-19 patients can vote by postal ballot.
Political parties must upload pending criminal cases of candidates, giving reasons for selection. Through cVIGIL voters can report violations of the Model Code of Conduct, distribution of money and freebies. ECI officials will reach the place of offence within 100 minutes!
The 2022 elections will redefine some political issues. The BJP in UP and Congress in Punjab will defend their key turfs. Congress sent 11 of its 52 Lok Sabha seats, i.e., 20% from Punjab. BJP elected 62 i.e., 20% of its 301 Lok Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh. Both are not facing each other unlike in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. The SP is drawing crowds in UP and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab.
The BJP is non-existent in Punjab and Congress in UP. Religious minorities mistrust BJP despite its wooing Sikhs. Three farm laws have widened the chasm. The Congress, despite 1984 pogrom, has cleverly cultivated Sikhs. It is largely confined to minority regions. BJP is wooing Sikhs by facilitating visits to sacred sites in Pakistan. Modi met with the Pontiff in 2021 to befriend Catholics in Goa, who constitute a third of the population. Both BJP and Congress seek foothold in Punjab and UP respectively.
BJP win in UP will make Yogi Adityanath the prospective successor to Modi. The unapologetically brash Hindu leader has established himself outside the shadow of Modi. Denial of Ayodhya seat reflects that.
Two models of regional politics are on test. The SP in UP represents backward politics led by a dominant caste; the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab helms a minority religious politics but both models in regional political formations are corruption-ridden and dynastic.
Dalit politics in Hindi heartland was dominated by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The BSP ruled UP several times and had a strong presence in Punjab. BJP cut into BSP’s Dalits vote banks in UP. In Punjab, the Congress is consolidating the Dalits through CM Channi. BJP is expanding its acceptance among the Dalits. This election will shape the evolution of Dalit politics.
Delhi CM and AAP supremo Kejriwal, and West Bengal CM and TMC leader Mamata Banerjee pose non-Congress alternatives to BJP. Both are exploring their politics outside own turf to challenge Modi ahead of 2024. Kejriwal’s focus is Punjab and Mamata’s is on Goa. Their national ambitions will influence national politics ahead of 2024.
Salience: The 2022 election is a precursor to 2024 parliamentary election. Total 690 assembly seats including UP’s 403 will elect many Rajya Sabha seats. UP sends the largest number of MPs (80) to Lok Sabha, hence crucial. Presidential and Vice-Presidential elections are slated for July-August. Fifteen Rajya Sabha seats from UP and Punjab get filled in July. BJP approaches UP election to boost confidence whereas Congress takes it as an opportunity to claw back as national opposition. Five states send 43 MPs to Rajya Sabha and will could influence 2024 Lok Sabha election on 102 seats.
BJP believes its vote share will not drop below 40 per cent to form government as SP won’t cross 30 per cent and BSP will have 20 per cent. BJP has a good presence on social media platforms. SP and others are strengthening their digital army. Late 2022, two more BJP-ruled states – Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh— go to polls.
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